Which NFL teams draft best?
Over the 2005 to 2018 drafts, Green Bay, New Orleans, Baltimore and Seattle turned their picks into the most career value above what those slots normally return, and Cleveland and the Raiders the least. A first-round pick yields about 44 career AV on average and a seventh-rounder about 6, and the single biggest steal in the data is still Tom Brady at pick 199.
- +468career AV above slot expectation for Green Bay’s 2005–2018 classes, the most of any team
- −490for Cleveland over the same drafts, the least
- 72%of first-round picks become multi-year starters (25+ career AV); 7% of seventh-rounders do
- +168AV over expectation for Tom Brady, pick 199 in 2000 – the biggest steal since 1980
Based on all 12,670 NFL draft picks from 1980 through 2025, each scored against the average career value of the players taken at the same overall pick in the 2000–2020 classes. Explore the live data.
Which NFL teams draft the best?
Green Bay, New Orleans, Baltimore and Seattle got the most out of their draft position between 2005 and 2018, each returning 20% or more career value above what their slots normally produce. Cleveland and the Raiders got the least, around 20% below.
| Team | Picks | Career AV | Over expected | Hit rate | Best pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay | 132 | 2,567 | +468 | 28% | Aaron Rodgers |
| New Orleans | 88 | 2,148 | +455 | 42% | Jahri Evans |
| Baltimore | 121 | 2,419 | +403 | 31% | Lamar Jackson |
| Seattle | 123 | 2,214 | +392 | 26% | Russell Wilson |
| Philadelphia | 120 | 2,273 | +282 | 31% | Jason Kelce |
| Dallas | 114 | 2,202 | +278 | 34% | Dak Prescott |
| New England | 122 | 2,153 | +225 | 31% | Logan Mankins |
| Pittsburgh | 115 | 1,999 | +221 | 27% | Cameron Heyward |
| Arizona | 98 | 1,631 | −181 | 29% | Calais Campbell |
| NY Giants | 95 | 1,541 | −183 | 28% | Jason Pierre-Paul |
| LA Rams | 125 | 1,970 | −264 | 23% | Aaron Donald |
| Tampa Bay | 109 | 1,727 | −295 | 26% | Lavonte David |
| Las Vegas | 113 | 1,589 | −431 | 22% | Khalil Mack |
| Cleveland | 121 | 1,926 | −490 | 25% | Myles Garrett |
Across all 32 teams those classes have returned 101% of what their slots normally produce, with 27% of picks becoming multi-year starters. New Orleans did it with the fewest picks of any team; Green Bay and Seattle with quarterbacks who became the best pick of the whole span. The report lets you move the year range and re-rank.
How much is each NFL draft pick worth?
The first overall pick has returned 76 career AV on average and a multi-year starter 95% of the time. Value falls fast: pick 10 averages 39, the last pick of the first round 42, and by pick 100 the average is 18 with a 38% chance of a starter.
| Overall pick | Round | Average AV | Median AV | Starter rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 76.4 | 72 | 95% |
| 10 | 1 | 39.4 | 30 | 62% |
| 20 | 1 | 37.6 | 31 | 71% |
| 32 | 1 | 41.9 | 38 | 62% |
| 33 | 2 | 34.2 | 36 | 67% |
| 64 | 2 | 29.9 | 22 | 43% |
| 100 | 3 | 18.5 | 14 | 38% |
| 150 | 5 | 7.9 | 5 | 10% |
| 200 | 6 | 10.8 | 1 | 19% |
| 250 | 7 | 10.6 | 2 | 20% |
The curve is steep at the top and nearly flat after the third round. From pick 150 on, the median player returns almost nothing, and the averages are held up by a handful of late-round stars. The full curve, with hit and bust rates for all 262 slots, is in the report.
What are the odds a draft pick becomes a starter, by round?
In the 2005 to 2018 drafts, 72% of first-round picks reached 25 career AV, roughly a multi-year starter. That falls to 49% in round two, 32% in round three, and under 10% in rounds six and seven, where two-thirds of picks finish with under 5 AV.
| Round | Picks | Average AV | Starter | Pro Bowl | Bust | Avg games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 446 | 43.7 | 72% | 46% | 3% | 110 |
| 2 | 445 | 28.0 | 49% | 22% | 14% | 88 |
| 3 | 496 | 19.5 | 32% | 12% | 28% | 72 |
| 4 | 516 | 14.8 | 22% | 8% | 35% | 62 |
| 5 | 510 | 10.7 | 15% | 7% | 50% | 52 |
| 6 | 547 | 7.7 | 10% | 4% | 62% | 42 |
| 7 | 603 | 5.9 | 7% | 2% | 68% | 33 |
Which positions are worth drafting early?
Quarterbacks, linebackers and offensive linemen taken in the first round have returned more than their slots usually do; tight ends, defensive backs and receivers less. In the second round offensive linemen beat expectation by about 9 AV a pick, and tight ends fall 10 short.
| Position | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive line | +3.8 | +8.7 | +5.9 |
| Quarterback | +6.1 | +4.1 | −2.2 |
| Linebacker | +6.2 | +1.7 | +1.7 |
| Running back | +0.4 | +1.2 | +1.5 |
| Defensive line | −1.1 | −1.3 | +0.6 |
| Wide receiver | −3.9 | −1.9 | −1.4 |
| Defensive back | −5.4 | −3.2 | −4.9 |
| Tight end | −7.3 | −9.9 | −4.7 |
Quarterback is the high-variance case: first-rounders average 58 AV against 52 expected, but 8% of them bust outright, the highest rate of any position in round one. Linemen are the steady return, above expectation in every one of the first three rounds.
Who are the biggest NFL draft steals?
Tom Brady, taken 199th in 2000, returned 184 career AV against the 16 that pick usually produces. Drew Brees (pick 32), Brett Favre (33), Russell Wilson (75) and Terrell Owens (89) round out the five biggest gains over slot expectation since 1980.
| Player | Drafted | Team | Career AV | Expected | Over expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 2000, R6 #199 | NE | 184 | 16 | +168 |
| Drew Brees | 2001, R2 #32 | LAC | 167 | 42 | +125 |
| Brett Favre | 1991, R2 #33 | ATL | 158 | 34 | +124 |
| Russell Wilson | 2012, R3 #75 | SEA | 140 | 22 | +118 |
| Terrell Owens | 1996, R3 #89 | SF | 121 | 18 | +103 |
| Mike Singletary | 1981, R2 #38 | CHI | 124 | 25 | +99 |
| Michael Strahan | 1993, R2 #40 | NYG | 122 | 23 | +99 |
| Zach Thomas | 1996, R5 #154 | MIA | 115 | 17 | +99 |
| Bobby Wagner | 2012, R2 #47 | SEA | 129 | 33 | +96 |
| Tom Nalen | 1994, R7 #218 | DEN | 102 | 7 | +95 |
Who are the biggest NFL draft busts?
JaMarcus Russell, first overall in 2007, finished with 6 career AV against the 76 a first pick usually returns. Three other number-one picks – Ki-Jana Carter, Steve Emtman and Bo Jackson, who never played for Tampa Bay – and Ryan Leaf at pick two complete the five largest shortfalls.
| Player | Drafted | Team | Career AV | Expected | Under expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JaMarcus Russell | 2007, #1 | LV | 6 | 76 | −70 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 1995, #1 | CIN | 11 | 76 | −65 |
| Steve Emtman | 1992, #1 | IND | 13 | 76 | −63 |
| Bo Jackson | 1986, #1 | TB | 22 | 76 | −54 |
| Ryan Leaf | 1998, #2 | LAC | 1 | 54 | −53 |
| Mike Junkin | 1987, #5 | CLE | 3 | 56 | −53 |
| Aundray Bruce | 1988, #1 | ATL | 24 | 76 | −52 |
| Trev Alberts | 1994, #5 | IND | 4 | 56 | −52 |
| Reggie McGrew | 1999, #24 | SF | 1 | 52 | −51 |
| Akili Smith | 1999, #3 | CIN | 2 | 52 | −50 |
Bo Jackson is a bust only on this ledger: he refused to sign with Tampa Bay and his 22 AV came with the Raiders. Classes after 2021 are left out of this list because their careers are too short to judge.
How was this measured?
Draft picks and career outcomes come from Pro Football Reference via nflverse, classes 1980 to the current year, refreshed weekly. Career value is PFR’s approximate value (AV), one number that credits every player for every season across positions, weighted so peak seasons count more. A starter, or hit, is a player who reached 25 career AV; a bust is under 5.
Expected AV for a pick is the average career AV of every player taken at that overall pick in the 2000–2020 classes, so it already allows for the third pick being worth more than the thirtieth. Those classes are used because their careers are essentially complete; outcomes keep accruing for active players, which is why the team table stops at the 2018 class and recent classes read low for every team. Team codes are current franchise codes, so relocated franchises’ picks are credited to the current team.
The data lives in a Power BI semantic model on Microsoft Fabric. Every number on this page was produced by an AI assistant querying that model directly, and the same model powers the live public report.
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