How does weather affect NFL games?
Rain and wind take points off the board and snow does not. Wind is the single biggest factor: scoring falls from 44.4 points a game in calm air to 33.4 above 22 mph.
- 39.3points a game in the rain, against a 42.0 posted total
- 33.4points a game once the wind is over 22 mph
- 66.6%field goals from 40–49 yards in 15+ mph wind, against 74.3% in calm
- −1%Josh Allen’s fantasy points in rough weather – the most weather-proof star
Based on all 7,324 NFL regular-season and playoff games since 1999, each matched to the hourly weather at the stadium at kickoff. Explore the live data.
Does weather affect scoring and over/unders?
Yes. Rain lowers scoring about 4.5 points below fair weather and beats the posted total only 38% of the time. Snow, despite its reputation, does not lower scoring and goes over more often than any other condition.
| Weather at kickoff | Games | Points per game | Posted total | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dome or closed roof | 1,830 | 46.9 | 45.7 | 51% |
| Fair | 4,343 | 43.8 | 43.1 | 49% |
| Freezing (under 32°F) | 324 | 43.5 | 42.2 | 51% |
| Snow | 93 | 43.4 | 41.8 | 54% |
| Windy (15+ mph) | 279 | 40.5 | 41.7 | 47% |
| Rain | 289 | 39.3 | 42.0 | 38% |
Home teams also do better in the cold: they win 56% of fair-weather games, 61% of games below freezing and 65% of snow games.
How much does wind affect an NFL game?
Every step up in wind takes points off the board, and even a light breeze matters. Games with 8 to 14 mph wind went over the total only 44% of the time across 1,936 games.
| Wind at kickoff | Games | Points per game | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calm, under 8 mph | 3,181 | 44.4 | 52% |
| Breezy, 8–14 mph | 1,936 | 42.3 | 44% |
| Windy, 15–21 mph | 348 | 40.7 | 47% |
| Very windy, 22+ mph | 29 | 33.4 | 38% |
Teams also throw less as the wind picks up: the share of plays that are passes falls from 59.5% in calm air to 52.7% above 22 mph.
Does wind affect field goal percentage?
Yes, most noticeably from 30 to 49 yards. A 40-yard try is about 8 points less likely to go in when the wind is 15 mph or more.
| Distance | Calm | Breezy, 8–14 mph | Windy, 15+ mph |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 30 yards | 96.7% | 96.5% | 94.8% |
| 30–39 yards | 88.8% | 87.7% | 82.0% |
| 40–49 yards | 74.3% | 73.0% | 66.6% |
| 50+ yards | 62.1% | 56.4% | 57.8% |
Which fantasy positions does weather affect most?
Rough weather moves production from the passing game to the running game. Tight ends lose more than wide receivers in snow and wind, and running backs gain yards in snow but catch fewer passes.
| Position | Fair-weather baseline | Rain | Snow | Wind 15+ | Dome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB passing yards | 234 | −9.1% | −12.0% | −7.9% | +6.6% |
| WR receiving yards | 149 | −10.1% | −11.8% | −7.5% | +9.8% |
| TE receiving yards | 47 | −8.3% | −13.7% | −12.2% | +0.3% |
| RB yards, rushing and receiving | 128 | +3.2% | +10.3% | −0.2% | +2.3% |
| RB catches | 4.4 | −4.6% | −11.6% | −3.6% | +5.5% |
Which NFL players are most and least affected by bad weather?
Josh Allen, Travis Kelce, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers barely change in rough weather. Tight ends Jimmy Graham and David Njoku, and quarterback Peyton Manning, drop the most among star players.
| Player | Pos | Rough-weather games | Rough | Fair | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | WR | 25 | 17.7 | 15.1 | +17% |
| Derrick Henry | RB | 24 | 17.9 | 15.6 | +15% |
| Marshawn Lynch | RB | 26 | 15.6 | 13.9 | +12% |
| Josh Allen | QB | 51 | 22.9 | 23.0 | −1% |
| Travis Kelce | TE | 46 | 15.1 | 15.2 | −1% |
| Tom Brady | QB | 76 | 17.1 | 18.0 | −5% |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 66 | 18.1 | 19.1 | −5% |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 31 | 19.7 | 22.2 | −11% |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | 27 | 18.3 | 21.7 | −16% |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | 42 | 13.3 | 16.0 | −17% |
| Peyton Manning | QB | 17 | 14.0 | 17.6 | −21% |
| David Njoku | TE | 31 | 6.2 | 10.1 | −38% |
| Jimmy Graham | TE | 22 | 5.6 | 11.6 | −52% |
Rough-weather games cluster in December and the playoffs, against stronger defenses, and many players have 30 or fewer of them. Read the smaller samples as a tendency, not a certainty.
What were the most extreme weather games?
The coldest kickoffs since 1999 were the Chiefs–Dolphins wild-card game in January 2024 and the Vikings–Seahawks wild-card game in January 2016, both below zero. Among the windiest was Bills–Patriots on December 6, 2021, at 28 mph, when New England threw three passes and won 14–10.
The Christmas Eve 2022 Browns–Saints game combined both: 5°F with 28 mph wind. The full coldest, windiest, snowiest, wettest and hottest lists are in the report.
How was this measured?
Play-by-play and schedules come from nflverse, covering every game since 1999. Each game was matched to its stadium’s coordinates, including renamed stadiums, relocated teams and international games, with a flag for open, closed or no roof. Historical hourly weather came from the Open-Meteo archive (CC BY 4.0) for the kickoff hour and the three hours after. Dome and closed-roof games are counted as indoors.
Fantasy points use full PPR scoring: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 0.04 per passing yard, 6 per rushing or receiving touchdown, 4 per passing touchdown and −2 per interception. Players shown averaged at least 17 fair-weather points a game at quarterback, 13 at running back or receiver and 10 at tight end, over 30 or more fair-weather games.
The data lives in a Power BI semantic model on Microsoft Fabric. Every number on this page was produced by an AI assistant querying that model directly, and the same model powers the live public report.
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